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Floyd Mayweather vs Logan Paul fight week is here. The build-up has been months in the making and was even rescheduled in a way where the fight seemed almost off the table.
This Sunday, June 6th Showtime pay per view emanates from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida. The odds for this prizefight have gone through some permutations in the build-up to this one.
|Event Name||Mayweather vs Logan Paul|
|Date Time||Sunday, June 6, 2021|
|Venue||Hard Rock Stadium in Miami|
|Free Live Online Stream:||Watch Free Live|
A 50-0 boxer taking on an 0-1 boxer would seem academic, right? It would seem so and while many Niko Ekholm still obviously are going with Floyd here, this is some sort of burgeoning underdog sentiment here for Paul.
Mayweather’s Odds Moves
The odds have already experienced some decent movement even from when the fight was initially announced. I remember writing articles on this fight where Floyd Money Mayweather was as high as -6000.
Now at -1600, it’s clear that some of the media appearances and work done to illustrate the physicality differences have jolted the numbers on this line. This is also an older Floyd Mayweather who is operating at a size disadvantage here. The youth and size dynamics here seem to be catching the attention of more bettors leading in.
I felt like the recent media work they’ve been doing has underscored that part of the narrative, and it has caused Paul to go from +1750 odds at one point to being situated at +700 on fight week.
Logan Paul’s Advantages
Diametrically opposed boxing records notwithstanding, this is still a 44-year-old veteran clashing with a 26-year-old man. That doesn’t hold as much water with me, but it clearly does too many.
Logan Paul can weigh up to 190 pounds for this prizefight, while Mayweather can weigh up to 160 pounds in this exhibition.
I also think Logan Paul’s combat cache has actually been helped out by his brother Jake’s recent efforts. Jake Paul’s 3-0 boxing run has given some in the pugilistic public this more inflated idea of Logan Paul’s abilities by proxy.
Mayweather retired at 50-0 when beating Conor McGregor and has been taking these kinds of curiosity-driven exhibitions since.
As far as how odds will move closer to this fight, I think there will be even more people saying “what the heck?” and going with the underdog.
Mayweather will always remain a sizeable favorite, but the physical size advantages and youth of Paul has seemed to resonate with people a bit.
Even anecdotally, people that I talk about combat sports with have been asking the “what if?” kind of questions around Paul catching Mayweather and what that could mean with the age and the fact they’re separated by several weight classes.
I think the tale of the tape numbers and these aforementioned factors were always going to be how promoters sell some level of parity in this fight between one of the best boxers of all time and a winless Youtube star.
I favor the former over the latter when Floyd Mayweather vs Logan Paul goes down.
There’s never been a boxing match quite like the upcoming Floyd Mayweather Jr.-Logan Paul bout. And it’s not quite clear what to expect from the exhibition bout, which is set to take place Sunday night at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
But there will be plenty of people watching to find out what happens. Mayweather, who retired with a 50-0 professional record, has never lost and even won an exhibition bout against Tenshin Nasukawa in 2018.
Meanwhile, Paul, who rose to fame on YouTube, has only one boxing match on his resume: a six-round loss to fellow YouTuber KSI in 2019.
Paul clearly has less experience, but he’s 26 years old and is 6’2″, while Mayweather is 44 and 5’8″. Here’s a look at the odds for the upcoming fight, along with predictions for how this contest will unfold.
Favorite: Floyd Mayweather (-900; bet $900 to win $100)
Underdog: Logan Paul (+500; bet $100 to win $500)
Prop Bets (Via BetOnline.AG)
First to bleed
Will Mayweather be knocked down?
Will the fight end in the first round?
Will the fight go the full eight rounds?
It’s hard to look at the resumes of these two and not think this is a mismatch. Regardless of age and size, Mayweather has been boxing for years. And not only that, but he’s also defeated some top-tier fighters who stepped into the ring with him.
Paul is less experienced and has never fought somebody like Mayweather. And even with all the training that the younger, taller competitor has done, things are sure to feel different when he’s between the ropes with one of the greatest boxers of all time.
But Paul has made it clear that he knows how big of an opportunity this is for him.
“This fight means so much to me. To my fans. To my family. To everyone watching who thought they couldn’t do something in life,” Paul said, per the Associated Press. “That’s the energy I’m going in with. Everyone says this is impossible. Well it was impossible that I got this fight.”
Mayweather also called Paul and his younger brother, Jake, “fake fighters,” but the former champion didn’t get to this point in life with an undefeated record by taking any of his opponents lightly, either.
“I don’t have to talk about what I’m going to do. The world knows what I’m going to do,” he said per AP.
That’s going to end up with Mayweather winning this fight. It’s not going to happen immediately. The two are going to be sizing each other up in the first round, and there’s been too much hype surrounding this event for either of them to end it quickly.
Still, Mayweather is going to start to show that this truly is a mismatch in the second round. Paul has the age and size, but the boxing Hall of Famer still has the skill.
Expect Mayweather to get close to winning in the second round, but Paul will absorb some of the damage and hang on, trying to regroup for the third round. But at that point, Mayweather will finish him off, winning via a knockout in the third round.
There should be some excitement from this bout, and those who paid to watch will be somewhat satisfied, even though the fight won’t go nearly the distance. And by the end, Mayweather will keep his unbeaten record (professional and exhibition) intact.
Prediction: Mayweather wins by knockout in third round