Early bird Emmy predictions 2023: ‘Ted Lasso,’ ‘Succession,’ ‘Dahmer’ out front, but it’s still anyone’s game
If the 2023 Emmy Awards were handed out today, what would Gold Derby predict would be the big winners? Our predictions center officially opened on January 31 and already hundreds of people have made their nominations forecasts in 16 top races. Who’s out front to claim golden trophies in our early bird Emmy predictions 2023? As of this writing, things are looking strong for Apple TV Plus’ feel-good comedy “Ted Lasso,” HBO’s family drama “Succession” and Netflix’s serial killer limited series “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” — but it’s still anyone’s game at this initial stage.
Remember, the Television Academy is a big fan of repeats. When they love you, they really love you, and they’ll shower you with trophies year after year. Perhaps that’s why our early odds favor TV shows that have prevailed before. Indeed, “Ted Lasso” is the reigning Best Comedy Series champ from 2021 and 2022, while “Succession” claimed victory for Best Drama Series the last two times it was eligible in 2020 and 2022. Can both series claim trophy #3 in September?
Below, see a snapshot in time of our racetrack odds for Emmy predictions 2023, nominees and winners. Note that several contenders may be added, removed or shifted to other categories at a later date, depending on network decisions. Our odds are based on the combined forecasts of Experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, Editors who cover awards year-round for this website, Top 24 Users who did the best predicting the winners last time, All-Star Users who had the best prediction scores over the last two years, and the mass of Users who make up our biggest predictions bloc.
BEST COMEDY SERIES
Predicted Nominees
“Ted Lasso” — 9/2
“Abbott Elementary” — 5/1
“Only Murders in the Building” — 13/2
“The Bear” — 15/2
“Barry” — 9/1
“Hacks” — 21/2
“Wednesday” — 12/1
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” — 25/1
Predicted Spoilers
“What We Do in the Shadows” — 25/1
“The Great” — 48/1
“Mo” — 95/1
“Shrinking” — 100/1
“The Righteous Gemstones” — 100/1
See more Comedy Series contenders …
BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
Quinta Brunson (“Abbott Elementary”) — 18/5
Jean Smart (“Hacks”) — 9/2
Jenna Ortega (“Wednesday”) — 11/2
Christina Applegate (“Dead to Me”) — 6/1
Rachel Brosnahan (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”) — 10/1
Selena Gomez (“Only Murders in the Building”) — 21/2
Predicted Spoilers
Elle Fanning (“The Great”) — 22/1
Cecily Strong (“Schmigadoon”) — 48/1
Natasia Demetriou (“What We Do in the Shadows”) — 52/1
Linda Cardellini (“Dead to Me”) — 100/1
Courteney Cox (“Shining Vale”) — 100/1
See more Comedy Actress contenders …
BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
Jason Sudeikis (“Ted Lasso”) — 19/5
Jeremy Allen White (“The Bear”) — 4/1
Bill Hader (“Barry”) — 5/1
Steve Martin (“Only Murders in the Building”) — 6/1
Martin Short (“Only Murders in the Building”) — 7/1
Donald Glover (“Atlanta”) — 13/1
Predicted Spoilers
Jason Segel (“Shrinking”) — 28/1
Nicholas Hoult (“The Great”) — 52/1
Mohammed Amer (“Mo”) — 90/1
Bob Odenkirk (“Lucky Hank”) — 100/1
D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (“Reservation Dogs”) — 100/1
See more Comedy Actor contenders …
BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
Sheryl Lee Ralph (“Abbott Elementary”) — 4/1
Hannah Waddingham (“Ted Lasso”) — 11/2
Janelle James (“Abbott Elementary”) — 13/2
Ayo Edebiri (“The Bear”) — 7/1
Hannah Einbinder (“Hacks”) — 17/2
Juno Temple (“Ted Lasso”) — 19/2
Alex Borstein (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”) — 18/1
Cecily Strong (“Saturday Night Live”) — 18/1
Predicted Spoilers
Sarah Goldberg (“Barry”) — 33/1
Lisa Ann Walter (“Abbott Elementary”) — 46/1
Zazie Beetz (“Atlanta”) — 80/1
Gwendoline Christie (“Wednesday”) — 100/1
Molly Shannon (“The Other Two”) — 100/1
See more Comedy Supp. Actress contenders …
BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
Tyler James Williams (“Abbott Elementary”) — 9/2
Brett Goldstein (“Ted Lasso”) — 11/2
Henry Winkler (“Barry”) — 13/2
Nick Mohammed (“Ted Lasso”) — 8/1
Tony Shalhoub (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”) — 19/2
Anthony Carrigan (“Barry”) — 11/1
Bowen Yang (“Saturday Night Live”) — 12/1
Brian Tyree Henry (“Atlanta”) — 20/1
Predicted Spoilers
Harrison Ford (“Shrinking”) — 33/1
Ebon Moss-Bachrach (“The Bear”) — 48/1
Luke Kirby (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”) — 54/1
Chris Perfetti (“Abbott Elementary”) — 78/1
Kenan Thompson (“Saturday Night Live”) — 100/1
See more Comedy Supp. Actor contenders …
BEST DRAMA SERIES
Predicted Nominees
“Succession” — 4/1
“The White Lotus: Sicily” — 11/2
“Better Call Saul” — 7/1
“House of the Dragon” — 17/2
“The Crown” — 17/2
“The Last of Us” — 10/1
“Yellowjackets” — 13/1
“The Mandalorian” — 14/1
Predicted Spoilers
“Yellowstone” — 44/1
“The Old Man” — 50/1
“Andor” — 52/1
“The Handmaid’s Tale” — 100/1
“Lord of the Rings: Rings of Power” — 100/1
See more Drama Series contenders …
BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
Melanie Lynskey (“Yellowjackets”) — 37/10
Imelda Staunton (“The Crown”) — 9/2
Emma D’Arcy (“House of the Dragon”) — 11/2
Bella Ramsey (“The Last of Us”) — 8/1
Elisabeth Moss (“The Handmaid’s Tale”) — 9/1
Natasha Lyonne (“Poker Face”) — 21/2
Predicted Spoilers
Hilary Swank (“Alaska Daily”) — 18/1
Sharon Horgan (“Bad Sisters”) — 40/1
Christine Baranski (“The Good Fight”) — 40/1
Helen Mirren (“1923”) — 48/1
Juliette Lewis (“Yellowjackets”) — 100/1
See more Drama Actress contenders …
BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”) — 37/10
Brian Cox (“Succession”) — 4/1
Jeremy Strong (“Succession”) — 5/1
Jeff Bridges (“The Old Man”) — 13/2
Paddy Considine (“House of the Dragon”) — 17/2
Pedro Pascal (“The Last of Us”) — 10/1
Predicted Spoilers
Harrison Ford (“1923”) — 35/1
Diego Luna (“Andor”) — 42/1
Kevin Costner (“Yellowstone”) — 100/1
Matthew Rhys (“Perry Mason”) — 100/1
Dominic West (“The Crown”) — 100/1
See more Drama Actor contenders …
BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
Jennifer Coolidge (“The White Lotus: Sicily”) — 4/1
Sarah Snook (“Succession”) — 6/1
Rhea Seehorn (“Better Call Saul”) — 13/2
Elizabeth Debicki (“The Crown”) — 8/1
Christina Ricci (“Yellowjackets”) — 10/1
Aubrey Plaza (“The White Lotus: Sicily”) — 23/2
Meghann Fahy (“The White Lotus: Sicily”) — 15/1
Lesley Manville (“The Crown”) — 20/1
Predicted Spoilers
Milly Alcock (“House of the Dragon”) — 30/1
Carol Burnett (“Better Call Saul”) — 46/1
Denise Gough (“Andor”) — 52/1
J. Smith-Cameron (“Succession”) — 54/1
Ann Dowd (“The Handmaid’s Tale”) — 100/1
See more Drama Supp. Actress contenders …
BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
Matthew Macfadyen (“Succession”) — 9/2
Kieran Culkin (“Succession”) — 11/2
Giancarlo Esposito (“Better Call Saul”) — 7/1
F. Murray Abraham (“The White Lotus: Sicily”) — 17/2
Matt Smith (“House of the Dragon”) — 17/2
Stellan Skarsgard (“Andor”) — 14/1
John Lithgow (“The Old Man”) — 14/1
Jonathan Pryce (“The Crown”) — 15/1
Predicted Spoilers
Tom Hollander (“The White Lotus: Sicily”) — 33/1
Nicholas Braun (“Succession”) — 46/1
Ken Leung (“Industry”) — 52/1
Jonathan Banks (“Better Call Saul”) — 80/1
Michael Imperioli (“The White Lotus: Sicily”) — 100/1
See more Drama Supp. Actor contenders …
BEST LIMITED SERIES
Predicted Nominees
“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” — 4/1
“Fleishman Is in Trouble” — 9/2
“Black Bird” — 5/1
“White House Plumbers” — 8/1
“George and Tammy” — 8/1
“Daisy Jones and the Six” — 10/1
Predicted Spoilers
“Full Circle” — 22/1
“Obi-Wan Kenobi” — 33/1
“Extrapolations” — 64/1
“The Patient” — 99/1
“Five Days at Memorial” — 100/1
See more Limited Series contenders …
BEST TV MOVIE
Predicted Nominees
“Fire Island” — 4/1
“Prey” — 4/1
“Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” — 5/1
“Hocus Pocus 2” — 8/1
“Jerry and Marge Go Large” — 13/1
Predicted Spoilers
“Torn Hearts” — 28/1
“Heart of the Matter” — 30/1
“Reno 911: It’s a Wonderful Heist” — 52/1
“Somebody I Used to Know” — 100/1
“A Small Light” — 100/1
See more TV Movie contenders …
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
Jessica Chastain (“George and Tammy”) — 71/20
Emily Blunt (“The English”) — 11/2
Riley Keough (“Daisy Jones and the Six”) — 7/1
Vera Farmiga (“Five Days at Memorial”) — 15/2
Lizzy Caplan (“Fleishman Is in Trouble”) — 10/1
Naomi Watts (“The Watcher”) — 23/2
Predicted Spoilers
Claire Danes (“Full Circle”) — 18/1
Kathryn Hahn (“Tiny Beautiful Things”) — 22/1
Annette Bening (“Jerry and Marge Go Large”) — 35/1
Bel Powley (“A Small Light”) — 40/1
Uzo Aduba (“Painkiller”) — 60/1
Amber Midthunder (“Prey”) — 85/1
Zoe Saldana (“From Scratch”) — 92/1
Alison Brie (“Somebody I Used to Know”) — 100/1
See more Movie/Limited Actress contenders …
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
Evan Peters (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”) — 39/10
Taron Egerton (“Black Bird”) — 5/1
Michael Shannon (“George and Tammy”) — 11/2
Daniel Radcliffe (“Weird: The Al Yankovic Story”) — 6/1
Woody Harrelson (“White House Plumbers”) — 17/2
Ewan McGregor (“Obi-Wan Kenobi”) — 14/1
Predicted Spoilers
Jesse Eisenberg (“Fleishman Is in Trouble”) — 22/1
Steve Carell (“The Patient”) — 60/1
Justin Theroux (“White House Plumbers”) — 75/1
Ben Whishaw (“This Is Going To Hurt”) — 78/1
Jake Lacy (“A Friend of the Family”) — 100/1
See more Movie/Limited Actor contenders …
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
Claire Danes (“Fleishman Is in Trouble”) — 4/1
Niecy Nash-Betts (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”) — 9/2
Lena Headey (“White House Plumbers”) — 11/2
Anna Paquin (“A Friend of the Family”) — 8/1
Judy Greer (“White House Plumbers”) — 9/1
Cherry Jones (“Five Days at Memorial”) — 11/1
Predicted Spoilers
Zazie Beetz (“Full Circle”) — 22/1
Michael Learned (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”) — 28/1
Jennifer Coolidge (“The Watcher”) — 60/1
Merritt Wever (“Tiny Beautiful Things”) — 78/1
Mckenna Grace (“A Friend of the Family”) — 100/1
See more Movie/Limited Supp. Actress contenders …
BEST MOVIE/LIMITED SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
Richard Jenkins (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”) — 4/1
Paul Walter Hauser (“Black Bird”) — 9/2
Sam Claflin (“Daisy Jones and the Six”) — 6/1
Domhnall Gleeson (“The Patient”) — 17/2
Ray Liotta (“Black Bird”) — 21/1
Dennis Quaid (“Full Circle”) – 12/1
Predicted Spoilers
Jharrel Jerome (“Full Circle”) — 22/1
Hayden Christensen (“Obi-Wan Kenobi”) — 28/1
Ciaran Hinds (“The English”) — 28/1
Greg Kinnear (“Black Bird”) — 40/1
Murray Bartlett (“Welcome to Chippendales”) — 62/1
Domhnall Gleeson (“White House Plumbers”) — 95/1
Bowen Yang (“Fire Island”) — 100/1
See more Movie/Limited Supp. Actor contenders …
PREDICT the 2023 Emmy nominees through July 12
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